In California, the other Barack Obama race issue has increasing weight. One manifestation was a 9/21 piece in the New York Times suggesting a large November 4th black turnout in California for him might help pass ballot Proposition 8. That measure would halt recently legalized same-sex marriages in our most populist state.
“There’s no question African-American and Latino voters are among our strongest supporters,” said Frank Schubert, the co-campaign manager for Yes on 8, the leading group behind the measure. “And to the extent that they are motivated to get to the polls, whether by this issue or by Barack Obama, it helps us.”
While it seems a fair statement than many black ministers preach against SSM, some of the inferences drawn from that are more questionable. Over at Bloggernista, for example, three key points arise:
- It ties historic electoral enthusiasm among Black voters to an anti-gay proposal put forth by white evangelical conservatives.
- White voters are a majority in California.
- The article assumes black voters are a monolith that all vote the same way.
To those, I would add that nodding affirmatively in the pew does not necessarily translate into voting affirmatively in the booth. Also, the influence and pervasiveness of preachers in the black community is increasingly an atavism. While approximately 40% of U.S. Christians report weekly church attendance, more accurate large phone polls suggest that figure is about half that.
You can break that out in many ways to produce a hypothetical majority for or against Prop. 8. Neither black voters nor black and Latino voters together would pass or sink the measure. However, white voters are a majority and could, as are women.
Even though there are many socially conservative white voters in California, analysts don't tend to think they will vote in a block any more than they do women will. In contrast, the underlying assumption that most black voters will vote yes on 8, to overturn SSM, is common. It remains to be proven.
Prop. 8 has been slowly and steadily sinking in the polls, presently 55% no and 38% yes. Yet, the no-on-8 forces, like by Equality California, look at up to 20% undecided voters and are not confident. The Times article says each side will spend about $20 million on advocacy advertising.
The Obama connection has the additional convolution of his not supporting SSM. He and VP candidate Joe Biden are both on record favoring civil unions and opposing SSM. Moreover, the Democratic platform for this year is similarly spongy. It states opposition to the Defense of Marriage Act, but is non-specific on marriage with "We support the full inclusion of all families, including same-sex couples, in the life of our nation, and support equal responsibility, benefits, and protections."
That's tepid until you consider the GOP side. An amusing overlap with the Dems is that both Obama and John McCain avoid the SSM issue and each suggests that the decision resides with the states. The similarities end there, with McCain and VP candidate Sarah Palin opposing both SSM and any extension of tax, benefits or other rights and privileges to SS couples.
The Republican platform claims it is for equal rights but very opposed to SSM. In its Preserving Traditional Marriage plank, it includes:
Because our children’s future is best preserved within the traditional understanding of marriage, we call for a constitutional amendment that fully protects marriage as a union of a man and a woman, so that judges cannot make other arrangements equivalent to it. In the absence of a national amendment, we support the right of the people of the various states to affirm traditional marriage through state initiatives.
It decries what it says are Massachusetts and California "activist judges" and urges the Congress to prevent such decisions. It supports the Defense of Marriage Act and "...oppose(s) initiatives to erode parental rights."
The Times article suggests that neither any subset of black anti-gay voters nor even white evangelicals can pass Prop. 8. It notes that black voters should represent 6% of those at the polls and Latinos 15%. "Taken together, those two groups could easily decide the election, people on both sides of the issue said."
Of course, while the outcome of Prop. 8 is extremely important to the California GLBT community, it could be a real catalyst for marriage equality nationwide. As the most populous state, California's 36.6 million residents is nearly six times Massachusetts 6.4 million. Out-of-state couples find it much easier and quicker to marry on in California as well.
The flood of anti-SSM money into California is understandable, as is that for the no-on-8 movement. Now both sides are advertising to and canvassing the black and Latino communities. No one can count on a lock-step vote into the polls.
At the moment, Obama resides on that nebulous ground that his party inhabits. As a gay-rights advocate and avowed progressive, he is in stark contrast to his opponent and the GOP in general. However, in what many see as a necessary concession to get elected, he claims that the marriage-between-man-and-woman (oh, but civil unions are fine). Further complicating his wishy-washy stance, in his book The Audacity of Hope, he wrote "It is my obligation, not only as an elected official in a pluralistic society but also as a Christian, to remain open to the possibility that my unwillingness to support gay marriage is misguided...and that in years hence I may be seen as someone who was on the wrong side of history."
Short-term, that's no help for voters.